Down The Stretch They Come ....

After 266 games for a handful it comes down to one game, a game that can be the difference between a few hundred dollars for some or nothing at all. Heading down the final furlong we have 17 players vying for the 15 money spots. For “Ghastly” it is simply smooth sailing, he clinched first place last week.  What is more impressive; “Ghastly” with a 6 game lead into the final weekend or “tabaccy” with an umm… 10 game lead on last place?  I know I have beaten the  “tabaccy” sucks at picks all season but it is noteworthy for me. She (it can’t be a guy can it?) has spent 14 straight weeks in last place or second to last place and 12 straight weeks in last place.  The highest season rank she was at is 89^th place. 

In the spirit of transparency, I am writing this on a Friday late afternoon after maybe 3 or 5, 6 Captain & Cokes (with a lime) drinking home alone well I am with my dog “Fenway” so I am not really alone, I have “Fenway” and the Captain with me…   the moral of the story, if the facts following this are wrong, blame the Captain.

For many, so much is at stake in the Super Bowl, a closer look at the current standings what is at stake for each player. The Super Bowl will be big for players, in terms of picking the winner AND picking a tiebreaker score.

- "EdO" Can clinch first place with a win OR a loss by "The Dirty 712" ... "EdO's" tiebreaker score is worse than "The Dirty 712" so he will likely need to finish a game up to seal 2nd place. 

- "The Dirty 712" has to look behind him at "The Highlanders" and "Clay Davis", both just are just a game back.  "The Dirty 712" can finish anywhere from 2nd place to 6th place, just a difference of $550 in the money standings, no biggie ...

- "The Highlanders" and "Clay Davis" are both battling for 3rd place, both have 150 wins. 

- Then there is "WVU Pete" with 149 wins who with a lot of help can move up to 4th place or finish as low as 9th.

- "Drew", "Bob W", "Emmado" all have 148 wins and can finish anywhere from 6th to 12th place.

- "Mike S", "Gravy Train", "dflogue" sit at 147 wins are all are looking at a finish between 7th and 12th place.

The 13th - 15th spots are where it gets interesting, five players going after three money spots.

- The current 13th spot "Darby" seems to be in real good shape to finish in the money, with 145 wins and a great tiebreaker average (11.5) even with a loss in the Super Bowl that should be enough to stick in the top 15.

- "gigi" owns the 14th spot now with 145 wins and with a a so-so tiebreaker of 12.8, all "gigi" and "Darby" have to do is pick the winner in the Super Bowl and they clinch a money spot.  Even if both lose they are in good shape based on the tie breaker average to stay in the top 15.

The 15th spot is where it gets interesting, "Bolt Fever" owns it now and can clinch it with a win OR a loss by "rhonda b" and "Muffin Tops".  It would be prudent for "Bolt Fever" to just win because should he lose and either "rhonda b" and "Muffin Tops" (or both) win "Bolt Fever" will be SOL because of his horrible tiebreaker score of 14.8 he would almost certainly lost if it came to that.

That is where things stand, 17 players for 15 spots.   The moral of this for next season, the tiebreaker is just as good as a win so taking it serious each week can be a huge difference in the standings.

And speaking of the 16th player "rhonda b", talk about a weak bullpen closing things out, we are  talking John “Way Back” Wasdin stuff with her … from week 3 to 13 she was in the season top 10 each week except in week 9 when she fell to 13th.  After back to back weeks 10 and 11 in 9th place the floor caved in, dropping in consecutive weeks in the season rankings starting with week 14: 21th place, 26^th place, 29th place to finish the regular season. Yikes! Now she is just fighting to finish 15^th place.  

 Over in the middleman prize, as you know the player who finishes in 62nd place wins money as well and the current 62nd place person is ... NO ONE!  Yup, the standings look like this:

60 Smacky               135  131   0   50.8    16.6   20     266     63      + 3
61 Irishman74           134  132   0   50.4    11.7   20     266     58      - 3
61 Underdog             134  132   0   50.4    11.7   20     266     52      - 9
63 TMac                  134  132    0   50.4    11.9   20     266     59      - 4
64 05Nomar              134  132   0   50.4    12.3   20     266     65      + 1

I'll say no more! Ok I will,  there is a 3^rd tiebreaker, I know this because I helped write the rules so “Underdog” is 62^nd.  But even though I hate this prize … hellfire, save matches, fuck a duck and see what hatches, I’d love to win it. But I don’t know how?

My English major girlfriend is hovering around, she wants to proof this before I post it .. WTF, go away and get me another drink. She hasn’t proofed one thing I wrote all season all season and not we are at the end she wants to get involved.. …. chicks!

Super Bowl Prediction. I hate Pitt, I liked them last week because I hate the Jets more so I rooted for them, then promptly took a hot shower and scrubbed myself until there was blood. Plus I have been to Wisconsin many times, I spent many of weekends at Lake Geneva, WI and there isn’t much besides drinking and football so Go packers.

GB 30

Pitt 27

And those of you who do win, and even if you don’t make sure you tip the pool commish. He busts his ass and pays out of pocket for server and hosting fees. He’d never ask but I am .. tip you bastards.

Nomar Fact of the Week

Nomar wore the #5 in the major leagues except for his first 3 months with the A's when he wore #1 (which is fitting) . Matt Holliday already had #5 but was traded in the summer so Nomar took #5 back.

Take a Knee Ghastly Becuase...

It's over .. "Ghastly" has won the 2010/11 NFLPOOL championship. With a five game lead and only three games left he can coast his way to a higher tax bracket.   How impressive was his season, look at these numbers:

• He spent the last 8 weeks in the top spot
• The lowest he was this season was 8th
• He spent 14 of the 19 weeks in the top 3
• He had 6, 10+ win weeks
• He only had 2 weeks when he was under .500

His weekly average win total was 8.21 which I said at the start of the season is where you needed to be to have a shot at the money spots.

The rest of look like this: Edo has clinched a top 5 spot and The Dirty 712, Clay Davis, The Highlanders, Bob W, and WVU Pete have all clinched a money spot.  The rest, from 8th place to 15th place is still up in the air.  Spots 8 - 13 have 146 or 145 wins each while spots 14 and 15 have 144 and 143 wins. That 15th and final money spot will be fun to watch, Currently JoeF defied the odds (my odds) and climbed 15 spots in two weeks from 30th place to 15th place after a 3-1 finish this week following his 4-0 finish last week.  His tiebreaker score is a good 12.6 and the players tied with him in wins all have weaker scores but lurking win behind is Lone Wolf (pun intended) with an outstanding 10.6 tiebreaker.  A 2-0 weekend by Lone Wolf would put great pressure on JoeF because there is no way JoeF wins a tiebreaker shootout with him. ENZO is also sitting there with Lone Wolf at 142 wins but with a 14.0 tiebreaker ENZO needs a miracle finish to leap into the top 15. 

As far as me and the middle man prize (62nd), I went 1-3 this week and dropped to 65th place, Stella who went 2-2 now occupies 62nd place - whatever.

My playoff predictions last week here went 3-1, I whiffed on the NE/NYJ game but who didn't.  This week I'll nail both of them!

GB 31

CHI 13

NYJ 14

PIT 24

(if I were NY I'd be really scared of kicker Nick Folk this week)

And as a Patriots fan the AFC CG is a tough one to pick a side to root, I can't say either team I like but the way I see it is IF one of those teams has to win the Super Bowl who would I rather have it be? It has to be Pitt because most Jets fans are Yankees fans and the Yankees are douches just like their fans.  Rooting for a team in this game is like rooting for a casino in Blackjack but I have to root for someone or I can't watch. Plus if Pitt wins that will make back to back years the Jets made it that far and lost which will start the rumblings that they are a bridesmaid team.  But anyway .. I am rooting for GB to win the super bowl.  So Pit and GB this week and GB in two weeks (with Chi as the alternate team). 

Nomar Fact of the week

Nomar is the first player ever to hit three home runs over two consecutive innings as he did so in the first two frames of a Red Sox 22-4 victory over the Tampa Bay Devil Rays on July 23, 2002 (Also tied a major league record for most home runs over two days with five as he had hit two against the New York Yankees the previous day)

There's No Place Like Home ... Unless ..

....You were the home team last weekend .. four games, four road wins! 

Throughout the season I usually lead this with a congrats to the weekly winner but in the playoffs with so few games you won't get credit for winning a week here however it was amazing that only one player went undefeated this week, "JoeF". I'd thought I'd chalk that up to the Seattle effect and no one taking them but more people took Seattle (35) than took the Jets (31) and KC (26). 

The big congrats goes to "Angry Mike" who won the Survivor pool and has now joined elite company (me) as we are now the only two players to ever win the Survivor pool solely!   I'd like to point out that when I won it a few year's ago (under the name 22) I locked it up in week 13 but "Angry Mike" was equally impressive when you consider that not only did he win it he still had 2 of the 8 playoffs teams alive available to pick (NE and GB) so if he had to he could have made a pick this week.  Congrats young man and don't forget to claim your winnings with the IRS! 

The regular pool with seven games left only two money spots have been clinched, "Ghastly" is assured of at least a top 5 finish and "tabaccy" has clinched last place. Outside of that the rest of the top 15 is still in flux.   After this weekend things will settle down for sure and we will have a good idea of who will make up the top 10 spots at least.  The last money spot, 15th place  has 142 wins (Bolt Fever) but "Bolt" has a terrible tiebreaker score (15.2) so that spot is shaky at best. Especially with four players sitting behind him with 141 wins and all four have superior tiebreaker scores to "Bolt".  After that we have two players with 140 wins and five with 139 wins. Those five will need help, like go undefeated this week and hope the players above them go 0-4 or 1-3 to have a chance at a money spot.  Last week I boldly predicted that if a player was not in the top 26 they were SOL, well "JoeF" took it personal and went 4-0 and jumped 10 spots from 30th place to 20th place, he is one of the 140 win players alive. "JoeF" does have a shot at a money spot, he has a decent enough tiebreaker (12.7) and if he follows up last weeks 4-0 with a another 4-0 he could jump into the top 15.  A 10 spot jump is rare in the playoffs.

One money spot I have not mentioned all season because as I talked about a lot last season I hate is the "Middle Man Prize" basically it is like playing the lottery, there is no strategy involved. The dead middle is 62nd place this season. Basically you could go 4-0 and be screwed or go 0-4 and be OK. I fought to have that prize eliminated and use the prize money elsewhere but it fell on deaf ears.  With that said, if the season ended today the player in the 62nd spot is .. well .. me! Karma, maybe? I have no idea how to maintain that spot, do I try to lose? Do I try to win? Do I not make a pick?  I kind of wish I didn't look and see me in 62nd place, there are eight players with the same amount as wins as me (131) I just have the 62nd spot because my tiebreaker score is 4th best of those 8 players !!! Pray for me.

Seven games left this season ...

My weekend predictions to fill more space ... 

BAL 16
PIT 20

GB 21
ATL 20

SEA 17
CHI 27

NYJ 17
NE 38

Nomar Fact of the Week
Nomar's career playoff batting average is .321

The Strike is Over - I'm Back!

After a five-week work stoppage in which my pay was held from me we pulled an all- night negotiating session, the money and vacation issue was resolved so I am back at work writing for you.  The NFLPOOLONLINE company were being cheap pricks but I stood my ground and they caved to my demands. Lucky you! 

Since we last spoke, December 5, 2010 many things have happened.... a quick summary...

Week 13 "Fresh" won with a 13-3 record.

Week 14 "Atgel" won with a 13-3 record.  Week 14 also brought us the biggest backdoor cover we have seen in a long-long time.  The Thursday night game, Indy (-2.5) up 30-21 with 4-seconds left, Tenn has the ball on the Indy 3 yard line, it is 4th down ... and Tenn gets the TD as time expires making the game 30-27, Tenn trots out the special teams unit to tack on the meaningless extra point giving Indy (-2.5) a 30-28 win.  In the end it really wasn't a big deal in the pool, only 9 players had Tenn but if you were betting this game and had Indy .. yikes!. 

Week 15 "Scoop" took home the prize with a 12-4 record.

Week 16 "ChadchadChad" the player with three-names (because just "chad" isn't enough) won with a 12-4 record

Week 17 "EdO" won with a 12-4 record. This week also saw the 1/2 point screw job again with two teams losing (or winning) depending on what side you were on by a 1/2 point. Min +6.5 losses by 7 and the Giants -3.5 winning by 3.











Overall "Ghastly" leads the season standings with 151 wins, five ahead of the next closest player.  I mentioned in one of the first newsletters this season that all you needed to do with be in the 8.5 win per week range and that would be good enough to land you in a money spot and "Ghastly" has averaged 8.8 wins a week, the current 15th player and final money spot "Drew" has 139 wins for a 8.1 weekly average hence 8.5 would land you a few schillings.  With just 11 games in the NFL season "Ghastly" has already clinched a money spot, he is assured of  a top 15th finish.  "tabacey" has also all but clinched last place which is even more amazing, he /she is 11 games behind the second to last player with 11 games left.  "tabacey" has been in last place for 9 straight weeks.  Congrats on being a real big loser. With his 154 losses had he took the exact opposite teams this season and bet money on every game he would have tuned a profit.

10 of the 17 weeks this season had the full slate of 16 games, the other 7 weeks featured less games because of bye weeks.  Focusing on those 10 weeks of 16 games the overall weekly win totals of the winner broke down this way:

14-2 Once
13-3 Four-times
12-4 Five-times

The top 15 win money this season up from the top 12 last season.  As the standing are today if you are not in the top 26 you are pretty much SOL to finish in the money.  The 15th spot has 139 wins, in fact there are 6 players with 139 wins, two sit in the 14th and 15th spots while the other four fall behind them because of a weaker tiebreaker score.  Spot 20 has 138 wins and spots 21-26 each have 137 wins. Ge the picture? If you are in spots 27 or lower with 136 wins or less the chances of making up that many games to get into the top 15 with just 11 left to play is slim - very slim.  There are just too many players to jump over at this point? I'd be shocked if the end of season top 15 are not made up of these 26 players:

As of 1/7/2011

1 Ghastly 151 Wins
2 EdO 146 Wins
3 The Highlanders 146 Wins
4 The Dirty712 145 Wins
5 Clay Davis 144 Wins
6 Bob W 143 Wins
7 WVU PETE 143 Wins
8 Gravy Train 143 Wins
9 Mike S 142 Wins
10 Emmado 142 Wins
11 Darby 141 Wins
12 Bolt Fever 140 Wins
13 dflogue 140 Wins
14 Lone Wolf 139 Wins
15 Drew 139 Wins
16 gigi 139 Wins
17 rhonda b 139 Wins
18 Muffin Tops 139 Wins
19 Deano Mite 139 Wins
20 Roy 138 Wins
21 Diamond Jim 137 Wins
22 Asianmommy 137 Wins
23 WATERBOY 137 Wins
24 ENZO 137 Wins
24 G.O. 137 Wins
26 LIZ 137 Wins


Over in the Survivor pool only two remain, "Angry Mike" and "joe e". Heading in week 16 we still had 11 players alive but all 11 lost and for 8 of them it was off with their heads, in week 17 another poor soul left us and now we are left with two.  With 12 teams in the playoffs both players needed to and did hold on to a few playoff teams, "Angry Mike" still has NE, Bal and GB left to pick while "joe e" has NYJ, Chi and Phi left to pick. Chances are this thing could end this weekend and it will end if they both make their picks in the GB-Phi game. If for some reason both are still around next weekend you have to like "Angry Mike" to win it all, he will have NE to pick from and NE has not lost a home game this season.  But my prediction is this thing ends by Sunday night.

So there you have it, The longest newsletter ever, that is what you get when I start getting paid more ...  actually as you probably know there was no strike and no negotiating. I don't get paid shit to do this.  Truth is I ran out of Nomar facts so I had to take a break ... but really, with grad school, a ill dog and the holidays I simply ran out of free time.  But even though I sucked in the pool this season I did not suck in the classroom, Fall semester, three class  A, A, B+ .... and that B+ was only because the professor didn't like me - really! 

Onto the playoffs, see you all next week ..... maybe!

PS
If you were looking to read a column about a writer coming out of the closet, you came to the wrong place. I'm neither gay nor a writer.  


Nomar Fact of the week
Nomar won back to back batting titles in 1999-2000, the last right-handed hitter to win back-to-back batting titles was Joe DiMaggio, in 1939 and 1940.