Like Deja Vu All Over Again ....

We had our first two-time winner this week as "Bob W" threatens to turn this pool into a laughter. He is picking winners at a 62.5% success rate meaning if he was betting all his picks he would be up a nice profit even with the vig factored in.  I just wish he had a better nickname, "Bob W" is boring and not much to work with image wise.

I just returned from my first ever trip to the eye doctor and I can hardly see a thing, they used a series of drops in my eyes to run some test and it takes  a few hours for the drops to desolve so I am stuck with blurred vision for the next few hours.  I am tied up the rest of the week so I need to do this today so I am typing this while seeing triple what is on the screen.   And after the visit I do need glasses so I am back at it again next Monday to get them and my contacts. Sucks getting old but I still have my looks at least.  Moral of this story, isf there are any screw-ups regarding facts today it can be blamed on my poor vision.

After seeing only a mild separated in weeks 6 and 7 this week we saw major movement, 10  wins separate # 1 and # 28. Last week that number was at 50.   As we approach the mid-way point of the season things start to take shape, if you are in the bottom 10 chances are you won't get much better in the second half. Historically speaking if you are not in the top 70 by mid-season it may be time to start looking at your 2011 March Madness bracket.

The biggest jump of the week was "D' Man", up 32 spots but even with that big jump he still sits at 37th place.  "Bean Pie Specials" finally picked a Monday Night winner Yippie!. The most popular pick was KC with an outstanding 108 (87%) players picking them over Jax and KC paid off their faith with a nice win. 

Onto the people who don't understand how to follow the rules, yes you "Sagamore Squad", WTF, you have played in this pool for year's and you make your Survivor pick in the "comments" section instead of using the drop down option that everyone else used. Then you whine about it and of course latched onto my KC pick so this season while we all are allowed just two losses you get a break. Personally I would have told you to eff-off and not allowed you to get your pick in, rules are rules and the rules clearly say  once the games start the picks are locked so you need to review them on Sunday AM and if they are incorrect let the Admin know.  Read the rules (1c), print it and staple it to your forehead. You should do the right thing and take Buffalo this week as a punishment. 

This past weekend I was able to finally watch SD as they played my Patriots and now I understand why that team has been a Survivor pool cancer, holy shit are they a bad team, not talent wise but coaching. They can't get out of their own way, players not playing to the whistle, false starts, turnovers - no wonder they suck.   As predicted most jumped all over NO and Bal this week and wow I was hoping the Bills drove the ball down-field in OT to win it but it was fine settling for a Saints loss and a nice surprise to see so many jump onto Denver and lose.  If you listened to me and took KC you were sitting pretty, that game was never really close.   After the weekend we said bye to 13 more players, 12 at least got their pick, one player decided it was too much to pick and gave up and of course poor "Sagamore Squad" being a ritard. We started with 108, we have 35 left, 11 with no losses.  This weekend it is not easy,  there are no high reward risks this week except maybe SD at home vs. Cin but at this point SD is a kamikaze pick at best.  There are not real locks either, the biggest spread is KC at home vs. Buffalo.  Ind looks good at home vs. Hou and NE at home vs. Minn could be a safe pick but  I get the feeling this may be one of those weeks when the Survivor picks are all over the board.

Sorry this newsletter sucked,  I'll make it up next week when I can see better.

Nomar Fact of the week
"Nomar was at SS in 1996 when Roger Clemens stuck-out a record tying 20 batters in a game @ Detroit"-Nomar was a September call-up that year.

Like Steve McQueen Underneath Your Radar Screen...

Fuck all the head-shot injuries this week, this was the week of the dreaded half-a-point screwing! 3 games this week were determined by a 1/2 a point. Houston won by 4, they were giving 4.5; Baltimore lost by 3, they were getting 2.5; Indy won by 3, they were giving 3.5;  If you were on the losing end of any of those games, man it sucks, if you were on the losing end off all three of those it really, really sucks. Trust me on this, I know, I lost all three of those games and the vinegar in the wound for me is I finished tied for first with 10 wins for the week, meaning I came within a combined 1.5 points of a 13-1 record. God dammit!  Lets just move on.

This week 6 players finished with 10-4 records including me and yes I am bitter about those two Jacksonville turnovers deep in Tenn territory last night, if those two possessions were converted into 10 points, not an unreasonably expectation I would have won the week based on my tie breaker score so fuck you Jack Del Rio. But more about me later.   "MCQ" beat out "MuffinTops" after having to use the third tiebreaker, they both tied for wins and had identical tiebreaker scores so we have to dust off the rules and use rule 2.0-2a to get our winner.  I was hoping "MuffinTops" would win a week this season just so I could use that picture but because it was a tie I figured I'd use it anyway.  Congrats to "MCQ', the win moved him up 27 spots into 28th place. The biggest mover of the week was "MuffinTops", up 37 spots into 61st place.   We still have one poor sap that is winless on Monday Night Football, "Bean Pie Specials" is 0-6, I have a radical idea for you, next week who ever you think you want to pick, take the opposite, just try it.   The 5 hottest players over the past 3 weeks are JoeF, Krs10, crkob, WATERBOY and Zeus and I think at least 2 of them are chicks which shows that even though chicks can't drive a car for shit some can hang with the boys when it comes to picking NFL winners. Again this week a few teams that saw limited action covered the spread, Seattle who was picked by just 20% (25) players beat Chicago outright leaving Pete Carroll pumped and jacked and Washington picked by 31% (38) players covered vs. Indy.

Week 6 in the books and the separation in the standings is slowly happening.  Last week 10 games separated the #1 and #56th spot in the season standings, this week that number is at 50.  Overall the NFL is getting what they designed their system to do, create parity.  There are no undefeated teams, only 3 of the 32 teams have one loss and every single team in the NFC has 2 losses or more. In back to back weeks a team that has zero wins picked up their first win (DET & SF) and despite being 1-5 SF is just 2 games out of first place.

Over to my baby, the Survivor Pool 48 remain, 18 have 0 losses. In the history of the Survivor Pool has there ever been an easier pick than Pit over Clev?  Pit had zero chance of losing that game so it wasn't a shock to see 23 players take the easy road and pick Pitt.  14 other players hitched their pick to the Giants over Detroit, I thought that was a fools gold pick going in and it almost was, Detroit hung around in that game for a longtime and could have easily won but in the end those 14 players gutted out a win.   After my lecture last week I was disappointed to see so many players take the easy road with Pit and the NYG but happy to see a handful of others listen to me and started to really play, 8 took the win-less SF 49ers over Oak, a risk pick for sure esp. considering  Oak just beat down SD the week prior and SF was an unusually high 7 point favorite (one of those if it is too good to be true it probably is things but the points don't matter here but it was odd to see Vegas think they were that much better than Oakland) but the risk/reward was there and for those 8 players the risk paid off.  Of course I was one of those 8 players and along with "daveydfla" we both took Det last week and SF this week.  But "daveydfla" has to be the stud so far in this pool, he already has a loss from week 2 so the last 2 weeks he has pinned his survival hopes on two teams who had 0 wins going into the game. I did the same thing but I have the safety net of no losses, he does not have that luxury.  4 of the other players that took SF this week also had one loss coming into this weekend.  Be proud!

I could get into anther sermon how the 37 players that took PIT and NYG are pussies and just thinking of the week at hand and not long term but why bother, next week I am sure the board will be full of those same players taking Bal and NO in week 7 so I'll save my fingers from more typing abuse.  But please everyone, for your own safety stop picking SD, they knocked out 3 more players this week and have been an absolute disaster pick all season. When I say take a risk pick once in a while I don't mean a team like SD, that is not a risk that is suicide. 

To my fellow students of this pool who now must wonder if week 7 should be a spot where you take another risk or play it safe.... tough call. My rule is I only take a risk on a team playing at home, that team has to have a poor record but have played well and lost games because a few bad plays or calls (i.e. Det and SF the last two weeks) and they have to be playing a team that is not as good as they look on paper.  This coming week looking quick there is one game that falls into that category, KC @ home vs. Jax who may have lost their starting QB and could have to go with Trent Edwards who was cut by the win-less Bills after week 2. KC is one of those "are they as good as their record says?" teams, they have a decent record but .....Hmmmm..... I am not sure if I'll go with them or play it safe, KC could be one of those teams to pick now while they are playing well, to me they remind me allot of last year's Denver team that started off well then tanked the 2nd half so buying high now may be a wise pick in week 7.  That is the luxury a handful of us and I have, we took some chances so in the weeks when it is iffy we can take the safe road if we want and go with Bal or NO.   Finally while looking for shit to put in here of random facts for the season I stumbled upon this regarding my favorite topic, myself.  Through 6 weeks in the Survivor pool I have picked all NFC teams including every team in the NFC North! 

Until Next Week, Stay Thirsty My Friends!

Random Nomar Fact of the Week

"On September 1, 1996 Nomar hit his first major league home run in Oakland off John Wasdin"
(yes, that John "WAY BACK-WAY BACK" Wasdin!) 

A Ghastly Weekend ....

Some of you may be familiar with the term "back-doored" when it comes to betting.  What it basically means is when the game is close and ritard play happens that changes the outcome of the game (gambling wise) and makes one set of people happy and another set furious.  This can be a garbage time TD or FG that covers the spread or pushed the over/under or as we saw last night a pick-6 in the final minute that took a win ATS away from Minn and the 60 people who took them and gave the 64 people who took the Jets a cheap win.  I could hear the screaming, both joyous and anger from the Vegas sports book all the way in my Massachusetts basement.   With Farve anything is possible so it should not have been a huge surprise but for me and the 59 others who took Minn and checked this game as a win it still sucked.

Congratulations to "Ghastley", he had quite the weekend  winning the week and moving up to #1 in the overall standings.  The biggest jump of the week was "Kris10", up 45 spots to 24th overall and came very close to winning for the second time this season, in-between a last place finish. We are still about 2 or 3 weeks away before we start seeing some separation in the overall standings. Currently the top 56 are only separated by 10 games, usually by week 8 we start seeing that number widen more and more. 

Four players really have a case of the Monday's, "Bean Pie Specials", "ENZO", "Nacho chowda" and "Ease It In" have yet to win a Monday night game this season, yup 0-5 this season. Ask them how they feel about Brett Farve today!

This season has seen a big trend in upsets, and these upsets are having a major impact on the pool, this week alone only 30 people took Arizona (vs. NO), 29 took Washington (vs. GB) and 35 took Oakland  (vs. SD) and all three won, and only 8 players took all three teams. 

Now over to the Survivor Pool, we started with 107, 56 remain, 19 have no losses. I think many of you need to learn how this thing works before we go any further, too many of you are either too dumb or are not thinking ahead.  First it is a double elimination pool not a single elimination, why does this matter?  Well in a double elimination you need to take chances, because it is almost a certainty the pool will last into the playoffs so if you hope to be in it until the end you will have to pick 17-21 different teams and only 12 teams make the playoffs so you better be sure to hold onto a few of the top teams so you have teams to pick come January.  Sure each week you can go with the safe pick like many of you cowards did with IND, they were the best bet of the week no question about it but Ind will be a playoff team so why burn that pick when there were other options involving teams that won't be in the playoffs that were low risk and ripe for the picking.  The best time to take a chance is always between weeks 5-7, this is when you start seeing weaker teams playing the best football, come the second half of the season shit teams are too unpredictable. This week prior to making my pick I narrowed it down to 3 teams I deemed a low risk but a good risk, DET, JAX and SF.   DET was my best bet,  they have played very well this season, they were at home  vs. St. Louis who is terrible. It was a no brainier.  Jax I gave a look but after their big win last week and going on the road a letdown was a concern I felt they were the 2nd best bet, SF it seemed many of the experts loved this week, they seemed to be a good pick with all the injuries Philly has but with Philly losing last week Andy Reid would have them ready and SF is still coached by the clueless Mike Singletary and QB by Alex Smith not two people I felt good about putting my pick in their hands. So Detroit was my selection and they won 44-6, Jax also won and SF lost.  Honestly I thought I would be the only one picking them, I didn't think anyone else in this pool got how this is played but I wasn't alone, 4 other players took Detroit as well and I welcome you 4 (Sonylove III, Davey Kleinfeld, Daveydfla and Smooooth) to the top of the class and which ever one of you finishes in 2nd place behind me I'll be happy to have you as my runner-up, hopefully all 4 of you can share 2nd place.  For the rest of you who took NO, SD, CIN, BAL, IND shame on you, you are cowards, scared to take a risk, we are playing chess while you are playing checkers. And come week 15, 16, 17 and beyond ...IF you are still around and you are stuck having to pick Cleveland, Buffalo, St. Louis while us early season risk takers still have IND, BAL, NE, NO, NYJ in our pockets we will be laughing at you.  Now, those of you who already had a loss coming into this weekend I can't fault you for taking a safe pick, you have to stay in it but the rest of you who took the easy road, your an embarrassment to yourself.   And yes I can speak as an authority, I am still the only player in the Survivor pool history to win the pool alone and outright, every other season the pool ended in a tie so I am a living legend here.  You should be honored I just gave you this lesson, it must have felt like watching Picasso picking up his chisel. Why am I giving you this advice and risking you using it to beat me? You are all to stupid to take these tips so I am not worried.

Nomar Fact of the Week
"On August 31, Nomar made his major league debut at The Coliseum in Oakland against the A's, entering the game as a defensive replacement at second base"

Not Your Average Joe as Week 4 Goes to the Dogs!

Week 4 was the week the dogs were let out early, the first 8 games the underdogs were 7-1 ATS, that vaulted "JoeR" to a lead that he never looked back from.  It also launched him up 13 spots in the season standings to 2nd place overall.  In case you are wonder if you have heard the name 'JoeR" before here you have, he is the genius that could not figure out the Survivor Pool rules and picked SD in week one (loss) and again in week two thus he was eliminated for being stupid.  Yet some how he amassed enough brain power to win week 4, I am at a loss to explain it.  But congrats.

The week of the underdogs allowed many players to move up and many more to move down but the biggest jump up was "Sagamore Squad" who rose 69 spots in the standings ( I really couldn't wait to type 69)  yes I am 5.   The underdogs won 9 of the 14 games played and another NE was an underdog by the time the game started, that is usually a indication that most players will be around the .500 mark and many were between 7-9 and 9-7 but more than  handful, 13 total had double digit win for the week which tells me those players came to play this season, they are not the weekend warriors who just go with the favorites, nope - they do research and leave no stone unturned in their goal to finish in second place this season (behind me).    And yes, that is a picture of my dog.

Over in Survivor land we said bye to 11 players, all but one (Pickle) actually made a pick, I guess "Pickle" just wanted out and gave up. Of course "Pickle" got burned by SD last week so he may well have still been in shock. He could have still followed  the lead of "JoeR" and picked SD again this week.  The biggest assassinas this week were IND, Ten and Cin which helped knock out the other 10 players and leave many others with their first loss.  GB and NO tried so very hard to cause chaos in the Survivor pool but both pulled their head out of their asses in time.

Onto week Cinco -- 5 -- NOMAR!

Nomar Fact of the week
"The other player the Red Sox traded to the Cubs with Nomar in 2004, Matt Murton broke the Japansees record for most hits in a single season last week."